Roughly $13 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on June 26, and with the price hovering near $63,000, the positioning favours the bears — leaving bulls exposed to further pressure into month-end.
The expiry is dominated by Deribit, which accounts for about $10.4 billion — roughly 79% of the total. OKX holds around 6%, Binance and CME about 5% each, and Bybit close to 4%.
On Deribit, call options total around $6 billion, but 78% of that interest sits at strike prices of $72,000 or higher — well above the current market. Put options total about $4.5 billion, with only 28% positioned below $57,000.
Where the pain sits
Mapping the open interest across likely settlement ranges shows puts ahead in every realistic scenario. Between $57,000 and $61,000, puts lead by about $3.4 billion; from $61,000 to $65,000, by $2.7 billion; from $65,000 to $69,000, by $1.7 billion; and even between $69,000 and $71,000, puts still hold a $1 billion edge.
In short, the call side is stranded too far out of the money. Even a 12% rally from current levels would not be enough to swing the expiry in the bulls' favour — the puts clearly hold the stronger hand.
The backdrop
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 14% over June. Aggressive corporate buying earlier in the spring briefly lifted sentiment, but subsequent ETF outflows and stalled regulatory hopes drained the momentum, leaving the market on the back foot heading into the expiry.
The likely outcome is a further dent to bullish sentiment as July begins.
How we read it
Options positioning is a map of where pain concentrates, not a forecast of where price must go. Max-pain levels describe incentives and exposure; they do not dictate the settlement. We treat expiries as a risk event to be managed — sizing and hedging around the dates — rather than a directional signal to be traded outright.